Tropical systems become less frequent in November because of less favorable atmospheric conditions. Additionally, storms that do develop find it more challenging to make landfall in the U.S. because cold fronts become more common during this time. These cold fronts can steer storms away from the East Coast or keep them confined to the Caribbean.

The U.S. State Department warned against traveling to Cuba and offered departure flights to non-essential staff. A hurricane warning was in effect for the island’s provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

Rafael was expected to continue to pass by Jamaica through Tuesday afternoon, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night, and make landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.

Storm Rafael's projected path appears to have shifted, according to new hurricane "spaghetti" models. Rafael formed over the Caribbean yesterday and is predicted to reach hurricane intensity tonight as it reaches the Cayman Islands.